J 2017

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN THE VISEGRAD GROUP

PRAŽÁK, Tomáš and Daniel STAVÁREK

Basic information

Original name

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN THE VISEGRAD GROUP

Authors

PRAŽÁK, Tomáš (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution) and Daniel STAVÁREK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution)

Edition

COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC RESEARCH - CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE, Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2017, 2082-6737

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

50202 Applied Economics, Econometrics

Country of publisher

Poland

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

RIV identification code

RIV/47813059:19520/17:00010953

Organization unit

School of Business Administration in Karvina

Keywords in English

stock prices; macroeconomic fundamentals; Visegrad Group; causality; VECM
Změněno: 7/2/2020 10:58, RNDr. Daniel Jakubík

Abstract

V originále

This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long-term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short-run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005-2014 period. The short-term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long-term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative impact, is the most prominent predictor of the long-run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.