J 2024

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

CHLADNÁ, Zuzana, Jana KOPFOVÁ, Dmitrii RACHINSKII a Pavel ŠTĚPÁNEK

Základní údaje

Originální název

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

Autoři

CHLADNÁ, Zuzana, Jana KOPFOVÁ, Dmitrii RACHINSKII a Pavel ŠTĚPÁNEK

Vydání

Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations, New York (USA), Springer, 2024, 1040-7294

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10101 Pure mathematics

Stát vydavatele

Spojené státy

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations

Organizační jednotka

Matematický ústav v Opavě

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5

UT WoS

000688420200001

Klíčová slova anglicky

Epidemic model dynamics; Asymptomatic individuals; Quarantining; Testing rate

Štítky

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno
Změněno: 22. 3. 2024 06:37, Mgr. Aleš Ryšavý

Anotace

V originále

We present an epidemiological model, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the presence of asymptomatic individuals and the effect of isolation of infected individuals based on testing. Moreover, we introduce two types of home quarantine, namely gradual and abrupt one. We compute the equilibria of the new model and derive its reproduction number. Using numerical simulations we analyze the effect of quarantine and testing on the epidemic dynamic. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. Our simulations show that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. Finally, based on the effective reproduction number we suggest a strategy to manage the epidemic. It consists in introducing abrupt quarantine as well as relaxing the quarantine in such a way that the epidemic remains under control and further waves do not occur. We analyze the sensitivity of the model dynamic to the quarantine size, timing and strength of the restrictions.
Zobrazeno: 27. 12. 2024 14:24