One of the main objectives of the CREDO project is to register cosmic-ray cascades in many distributed detectors in the search for so-called Cosmic-Ray Ensembles (CRE). This requires precise knowledge of the probability of detection of individual Extensive Air Showers (EAS) in a very wide range of energies and an analysis of their correlations. The standard approach based on detailed and extensive simulations is not possible for many such systems; thus, a faster method is developed. Knowing the characteristics of EAS from more general simulations, any required probability is calculated. Such probability depends on particle density at a given point, which is a function of the distance from the centre of the cascade, the energy, mass and the zenith angle of the primary cosmic-ray particle. It is necessary to use proper distribution of the number of secondary particles reaching the ground and their fluctuations. Finally, to calculate the total probability of EAS detection, the primary cosmic-ray spectrum and abundance of various particles in it have to be taken into account. The effective probability can be used to estimate the expected number of EAS events measured by a set of small detectors. In this work, results from several versions of calculations, with different complexity levels, are presented and compared with the first measurement performed with a test detector system. These results confirm that the majority of events observed with this small detector array are caused by cosmic-ray particles with very high energies. Such analysis can be also useful for the design of more effective systems in the future. Slightly larger systems of simple detectors may be used to distinguish cascades initiated by photons from those started from other primary cosmic-ray particles.