Podrobný výpis o publikaci

The main goal of this article is to analyze the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and the default rate in the sector information and communication activities in the Czech Republic in the both long and short term. The vector error correction model was used for this purpose to determine both long-term and short-term causal relationships. To create the resulting model, the econometric methodology was used, namely unit root tests, Granger causality for the determination of statistically significant relationships, and the Johansen cointegration test. The results confirm the existence of relationships between macroeconomic variables and the probability of default in the sector information and communication activities. The model is based on the time series of the share of outstanding loans and the total amount of loans, and on selected macroeconomic indicators. The empirical results could be influenced by a period of a currency crisis. The data used have the character of quarterly time series in the period from 2005Q1 to 2019Q4. EViews software version 9 was used for the calculations.