J 2024

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

CHLADNÁ, Zuzana, Jana KOPFOVÁ, Dmitrii RACHINSKII and Pavel ŠTĚPÁNEK

Basic information

Original name

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

Authors

CHLADNÁ, Zuzana, Jana KOPFOVÁ, Dmitrii RACHINSKII and Pavel ŠTĚPÁNEK

Edition

Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations, New York (USA), Springer, 2024, 1040-7294

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10101 Pure mathematics

Country of publisher

United States of America

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Organization unit

Mathematical Institute in Opava

UT WoS

000688420200001

Keywords in English

Epidemic model dynamics; Asymptomatic individuals; Quarantining; Testing rate

Tags

Tags

International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 22/3/2024 06:37, Mgr. Aleš Ryšavý

Abstract

V originále

We present an epidemiological model, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the presence of asymptomatic individuals and the effect of isolation of infected individuals based on testing. Moreover, we introduce two types of home quarantine, namely gradual and abrupt one. We compute the equilibria of the new model and derive its reproduction number. Using numerical simulations we analyze the effect of quarantine and testing on the epidemic dynamic. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. Our simulations show that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. Finally, based on the effective reproduction number we suggest a strategy to manage the epidemic. It consists in introducing abrupt quarantine as well as relaxing the quarantine in such a way that the epidemic remains under control and further waves do not occur. We analyze the sensitivity of the model dynamic to the quarantine size, timing and strength of the restrictions.