CHLADNÁ, Zuzana, Jana KOPFOVÁ, Dmitrii RACHINSKII and Pavel ŠTĚPÁNEK. Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups. Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations. New York (USA): Springer, 2024, vol. 36, Suppl 1, p. 199-222. ISSN 1040-7294. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5.
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Basic information
Original name Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups
Authors CHLADNÁ, Zuzana, Jana KOPFOVÁ, Dmitrii RACHINSKII and Pavel ŠTĚPÁNEK.
Edition Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations, New York (USA), Springer, 2024, 1040-7294.
Other information
Original language English
Type of outcome Article in a journal
Field of Study 10101 Pure mathematics
Country of publisher United States of America
Confidentiality degree is not subject to a state or trade secret
WWW Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations
Organization unit Mathematical Institute in Opava
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10884-021-10059-5
UT WoS 000688420200001
Keywords in English Epidemic model dynamics; Asymptomatic individuals; Quarantining; Testing rate
Tags MÚ
Tags International impact, Reviewed
Changed by Changed by: Mgr. Aleš Ryšavý, učo 28000. Changed: 22/3/2024 06:37.
Abstract
We present an epidemiological model, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the presence of asymptomatic individuals and the effect of isolation of infected individuals based on testing. Moreover, we introduce two types of home quarantine, namely gradual and abrupt one. We compute the equilibria of the new model and derive its reproduction number. Using numerical simulations we analyze the effect of quarantine and testing on the epidemic dynamic. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. Our simulations show that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. Finally, based on the effective reproduction number we suggest a strategy to manage the epidemic. It consists in introducing abrupt quarantine as well as relaxing the quarantine in such a way that the epidemic remains under control and further waves do not occur. We analyze the sensitivity of the model dynamic to the quarantine size, timing and strength of the restrictions.
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